Rising Refunds in 2026: How the OBBBA is Impacting Your Return

As we navigate the heart of the 2026 tax season here in Staten Island, the initial data coming from the IRS confirms what many financial advisors hoped to see: refunds are trending upward. Early statistics show the average refund has climbed to $2,476, a solid 14.2% increase over 2025's average of $2,169. While this gain of roughly $300 is modest compared to the $1,000 increase some policymakers forecasted, it signals a positive shift for taxpayers.

It is important to remember that we are still in the preliminary phase of filing. As more complex returns—particularly for business owners and dual-income professionals—are processed, these averages will likely evolve. However, the current trajectory points to the tangible impact of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), which has introduced specific provisions designed to lower tax liability for working families and individuals.

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Key OBBBA Provisions Driving Refunds

At Hays CPA LLC, we are actively leveraging several new deductions and credits introduced by the OBBBA to maximize outcomes for our clients. Here is a breakdown of the specific changes fueling the refund increases:

  • Overtime Premium Pay Deduction: The FLSA-mandated "time-and-a-half" pay is now deductible, up to a cap of $12,500 for single filers and $25,000 for married couples filing jointly. This is a significant benefit for hourly workers pushing through busy seasons.

  • The Tips Tax Deduction: For those in roughly 70 designated service occupations, up to $25,000 of "qualified tips" can now be deducted. Note that married taxpayers must file jointly to claim this.

    Phase-out Alert: Both the overtime and tips deductions begin to phase out at a Modified Adjusted Gross Income (MAGI) of $150,000 ($300,000 for joint filers) and are eliminated entirely at $275,000 and $550,000, respectively.

  • Auto Loan Interest Deduction: In a move to support domestic manufacturing, interest on auto loans (up to $10,000) for new U.S.-assembled vehicles is now deductible. The loan must have originated after 2024 and cannot be a personal loan between friends or family. This benefit phases out starting at a MAGI of $100,000 ($200,000 for joint filers).

  • Increased SALT Cap: This is particularly relevant for our New York clients. The State and Local Tax (SALT) deduction limit has jumped from $10,000 to $40,000 ($20,000 for married filing separately). However, for high-income earners with a MAGI over $500,000, this cap begins to scale back down.

  • Enhanced Standard and Senior Deductions: The standard deduction is now $31,500 for married couples filing jointly and $15,750 for singles. Additionally, a new $6,000 "Senior Bonus" applies to taxpayers 65 and older, provided their income falls below the phase-out threshold of $75,000 ($150,000 for joint filers).

  • Expanded Child Tax Credit: The credit has increased to $2,200 per child, available in full to married couples with income up to $400,000 ($200,000 for single filers).

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Hidden Factors Influencing Your Refund

Beyond the legislative changes, two operational factors are quietly boosting refund sizes this year:

  • Withholding Discrepancies: Because many OBBBA tax cuts were enacted mid-year or retroactively, the IRS did not immediately update withholding tables. Consequently, many employees had more tax withheld from their paychecks than necessary, resulting in larger refunds now.

  • Inflation Adjustments: Tax brackets and standard provisions were adjusted significantly for inflation, helping to prevent "bracket creep" where cost-of-living raises inadvertently push taxpayers into higher tax rates.

Navigating IRS Challenges with Confidence

While the refunds are promising, the administration of this tax season faces hurdles. The IRS has reported a reduction in its workforce since January 2025 and is managing a backlog of returns. Currently, returns received and processed are down 2.6% and 3.1%, respectively. This administrative strain emphasizes the importance of accuracy; errors now could lead to longer delays than usual.

Led by Orumé Hays, CPA, our firm operates with a mission to "Go Beyond Accounting." We provide the structure and insight needed to navigate these delays without stress. We are fully versed in the nuances of the OBBBA and are committed to ensuring every eligible deduction—from the new SALT limits to auto loan interest—is correctly applied to your return.

If you have hesitated to file because of the complexity of these new laws, let us act as an extension of your financial team. We are here to provide clarity and maximize your benefits in this evolving tax landscape.

Schedule an Appointment Today!
Please note appointments have a $75 booking fee that will apply as a credit on your invoice, if you choose to proceed with our services.
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